MOFCOM February 2025 moly export license: where is the Turkish EAF market 14 months later?

China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) added seven strategic minerals and intermediate products to the export license list in February 2025 — molybdenum, tungsten, bismuth, tellurium, indium, rare earth oxides, and gallium. Ferro molybdenum (FeMo) is on it. Fourteen months in, the ledger: Chinese FeMo exports are down roughly 22% year-on-year, Tianjin FOB has shifted from ~440 CNY/kg to 510-525 (+16-18%), and Turkish EAF buyers have been forced to redraw their supply chains.

Who lost, who gained, and what Arsam recommends to Turkish buyers — in this piece.

What the license actually means on the ground

The licensing process takes 2 to 6 weeks today. Some suppliers — notably Jinduicheng Molybdenum (Shaanxi) and Luoyang Molybdenum Co. — push under three weeks through institutional channels. Smaller smelters (Huludao group periphery, Inner Mongolia) sit at 5-6 weeks.

Consequence for Turkish EAF procurement: the February RFQ is now a late-April delivery problem. The 3-week spot rhythm the market got used to is gone.

The Xinjiang power tariff hike adds a second layer. The 6-8% kWh increase effective April 2025 raised per-unit FeMo cost at molybdenum-concentrate-to-FeMo smelters by 18-22 CNY/kg. Suppliers passed most of it into export prices; Turkish EAFs saw the CIF Ambarli line move from ~1,280 USD/ton to ~1,460 USD/ton.

Turkish EAF market — who stood where

Turkish EAFs use FeMo primarily in alloy steel and specialty high-alloy grades. Major consumers:

• İÇDAŞ (Biga): largest private EAF, broad high-alloy mix. FeMo monthly consumption 40-60 tons. Activated Chilean moly oxide + domestic conversion alongside Chinese supply from Q3 2025.
• Kroman Çelik (Gebze, Çolakoğlu Holding): engineering steels. FeMo at 25-35 t/month. Still Chinese-dependent, extended inventory days-on-hand from 30 to 45 with the lead-time shift.
• Tosyalı (Biga/Osmaniye): one of Europe's largest single EAF footprints. Low FeMo tonnage (<15 t/month, main weight in FeSiMn) but strategic for alloy orders. At the contract table simultaneously with Kazakhstan ERG and Chile Codelco.
• Habaş (Aliağa): rebar-dominant, FeMo episodic. Chinese single-source.
• Çolakoğlu (Gebze): broad basket, FeMo volume mid-tier. 10-20 t/month, China weight.

The common finding: through mid-2025 roughly 85%+ of large EAF FeMo supply was Chinese. Q1 2026 data shows this at 65%. The 20% that shifted went to Kazakhstan (ERG), Chile (Codelco through trading houses), Peru (Freeport CMOC) and rotationally to European secondary markets.

Alternative sources — with numbers

Kazakhstan — ERG Eurasian Resources Group

• Aktau molybdenite smelter capacity ~12,000 t/year FeMo equivalent.
• Novorossiysk → Marmara: 30-40 days, versus 45-65 days from China — speed edge.
• Price: January 2026 benchmarks put FOB Aktau around 1,320 USD/ton, China FOB Tianjin around 1,460 — roughly 10% cost advantage. But volume is constrained; ERG signs mostly annual, spot flexibility low.
• CBAM edge: Aktau line runs on hydroelectric + natural gas (low-carbon). Relevant for EU-exporting customers from 2027.

Chile — Codelco + Molymet

• 21% of global moly concentrate comes from Chile. Codelco and Molymet don't produce FeMo directly but ship moly oxide; Turkish or South Korean conversion lines became active in 2025.
• Price: Mo oxide FOB San Antonio 14.80-15.40 USD/lb (March 1, 2026). Converted + freight into CIF Marmara ~1,420 USD/ton — at parity with China.
• Logistics: 45-55 days + conversion time. Net slower than China.

Peru — Freeport-McMoRan CMOC partnership

• Cuajone + Toquepala mines, high moly concentrate capacity.
• 70% of exports go to Asia. Turkish route opened in 2024, volume still limited.

Short summary for the Turkish EAF buyer:

Don't leave FeMo supply single-sourced. Target mix: 55-65% China (Luoyang-Jinduicheng weighted), 20-25% Kazakhstan ERG contract, 10-15% Chile moly oxide + conversion. Keep 5-10% open for spot with a 6-week buffer. Rebalance at the November 2026 Fastmarkets Ferroalloys Conference in Lisbon.

Chinese VAT rebate risk — distant but tracked

On April 1, 2026, China removed the export VAT rebate (typically 13%) on 249 products. FeMo is NOT on that list yet, but cancellations continue across strategic sectors — lithium, solar, batteries. Ferroalloy signals to watch via MOFCOM + NDRC:

• Moly concentrate (ore) already carries export tax.
• Semi-finished products like FeMo — if rebate is cut, likely first to 5%, then fully phased out.
• Track: FerroAlloyNet + SMM paid subscriptions + MOFCOM bulletins.

If FeMo VAT rebate is cut, Chinese FOB jumps 8-12% instantly. In that scenario Turkish EAF buyers have to push Kazakhstan + Chile mix up to 45%+.

Five practical clauses when writing a supplier contract

1. License delay indemnity: if MOFCOM licensing exceeds 6 weeks, supplier owes 0.1-0.15% of invoice per day. Write it in.
2. FX sharing: FOB pricing in CNY, payment in USD. If TRY moves >10%, price revision formula is explicit.
3. COA + MTC mandatory: every lot — COA (Mo analysis) + MTC (origin trace) + Radiation Certificate (Turkish port). Not on request; automatic.
4. Partial shipment allowed: on 30-ton orders, 10+10+10 phased shipments + L/C part-shipment permitted. Cash flow-critical.
5. Alternate source clause: if supplier slips on FOB, buyer can switch to alternative (e.g. Kazakhstan) on one notice, delta charged to supplier.

Closing

MOFCOM licensing is not a transient policy. China intends to extend similar restrictions to rare earth oxides and other strategic ferroalloys through 2027 — NDRC December 2024 documents state this openly. Turkish EAF procurement teams should write contracts on that assumption.

Arsam Metal's FeMo line runs three active sources: China (Luoyang + Jinduicheng) + Kazakhstan (ERG contract) + Chile (Molymet conversion partner). A Turkish EAF buyer gets three routes from one desk, with spot and tender priced separately. Annual volume contracts carry 60-90 day terms; spot lots sit on L/C sight — both in the same playbook.

Use the quote form for detailed requirements, or WhatsApp directly — Malek looks at anything over 30 tons personally.