MOFCOM moly export license, 14 months on: how the Turkish EAF market is re-planning FeMo

China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) added seven strategic minerals and intermediate products to its export-license list in February 2025: molybdenum, tungsten, bismuth, tellurium, indium, rare earth oxides, and gallium. Ferro molybdenum (FeMo) is on it. Fourteen months in, the ledger is clear: Chinese FeMo exports are down roughly 22% year on year, FOB has moved up 16-18%, and Turkish EAF buyers have had to redraw their supply plans.

This piece covers what the license means on the ground, the price impact, and a multi-regional sourcing framework for the Turkish buyer.

What the license means on the ground

The licensing process now takes 2 to 6 weeks. Large institutional producers can get under three weeks through corporate channels; smaller smelters sit at 5-6 weeks. The practical result: a February RFQ is now a late-April delivery problem. The three-week spot rhythm the market relied on is gone.

Energy cost added a second layer. The regional power tariff increase that took effect in spring 2025 raised per-unit cost at plants converting molybdenum concentrate into FeMo. Producers passed most of it into export prices, and the Turkish EAF buyer saw the CIF Ambarli line move from about 1,280 USD/ton to about 1,460 USD/ton.

How the Turkish EAF market responded

Turkish EAFs use FeMo mainly in alloy steel and specialty high-alloy grades; in rebar-dominant mills the demand is episodic. The market-wide trend, stated without naming any customer, looks like this:

• Large private EAFs with a broad high-alloy basket consume tens of tons a month and began activating non-Chinese sources from the second half of 2025.
• Engineering-steel mills raised inventory days-on-hand from 30 to 45.
• Rebar-dominant producers kept FeMo demand low and seasonal.

The aggregate picture is the striking part: through mid-2025, more than 85% of large-EAF FeMo supply was Chinese. Q1 2026 data puts that near 65%. The shifting share spread across Kazakhstan, Chile, Peru, and seasonally the European secondary market.

The market's alternative-source map

This section summarizes publicly known alternative production geographies, not Arsam's own supply channels.

Kazakhstan. Molybdenite smelting capacity exists, and the route to Marmara via the Black Sea is faster than from China. In January 2026 references, the FOB level ran roughly 10% below China's Tianjin. Volume is limited, though, and contracts close mostly on an annual basis, so spot flexibility is low. The line generally runs on low-carbon power, which adds a CBAM advantage for EU exporters from 2027 onward.

Chile. A significant share of global moly concentrate originates here. It ships as moly oxide rather than FeMo directly; conversion chains in Turkish or South Korean plants became active in 2025. Converted, with freight, the cost is at parity with China, while logistics are clearly slower.

Peru. Concentrate capacity is high and most exports go to Asia; the Turkish route is relatively new and volume is still limited.

Chinese VAT rebate risk: distant but tracked

On April 1, 2026, China removed the export VAT rebate on 249 products. FeMo is not on that list yet, but cancellations continue across strategic sectors such as lithium, solar, and batteries. A plausible path for semi-finished products is a rebate cut first, then a phased removal. If the FeMo rebate is cut, Chinese FOB could jump 8-12% instantly, and the Turkish buyer would have to push the non-Chinese share up. Signal sources: MOFCOM and NDRC bulletins, plus the sector price services.

Five practical clauses when writing a supplier contract

1. License delay indemnity. If licensing exceeds six weeks, the supplier owes a daily indemnity proportional to invoice value. Write it in.
2. FX sharing. With FOB priced in CNY and payment in USD, set an explicit price-revision formula above a defined currency threshold.
3. COA + MTC mandatory. For every lot: analysis certificate, mill test certificate, and radiation certificate. Automatic, not on request.
4. Partial shipment allowed. Phased shipment on large orders, plus letter-of-credit part-shipment permission; this is cash-flow critical.
5. Alternate source clause. If the supplier slips on delivery, the buyer can switch to an alternative on a single notice, with the delta charged to the supplier.

Closing

MOFCOM licensing is not transient; it is a durable policy line, and similar restrictions are expected to extend to other strategic items through 2027. Turkish EAF procurement teams should write contracts on that assumption. The right structure is to avoid single-sourcing: anchor annual volume at the base and manage spot flexibility as a separate share.

Arsam Metal's role here is a multi-regional source network that offers route flexibility from a single desk; origin is optimized to the customer's delivery and documentation needs, with spot and tender priced separately. Annual volume contracts work alongside letter-of-credit discipline on spot lots.

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